Meteorological application of Apollo photography Final report

Development of meteorological information and parameters based on cloud photographs taken during Apollo 9 fligh

Gaussian Approximation Potentials: the accuracy of quantum mechanics, without the electrons

We introduce a class of interatomic potential models that can be automatically generated from data consisting of the energies and forces experienced by atoms, derived from quantum mechanical calculations. The resulting model does not have a fixed functional form and hence is capable of modeling complex potential energy landscapes. It is systematically improvable with more data. We apply the method to bulk carbon, silicon and germanium and test it by calculating properties of the crystals at high temperatures. Using the interatomic potential to generate the long molecular dynamics trajectories required for such calculations saves orders of magnitude in computational cost.Comment: v3-4: added new material and reference

Initial results from the Caltech/DRSI balloon-borne isotope experiment

The Caltech/DSRI balloonborne High Energy Isotope Spectrometer Telescope (HEIST) was flown successfully from Palestine, Texas on 14 May, 1984. The experiment was designed to measure cosmic ray isotopic abundances from neon through iron, with incident particle energies from approx. 1.5 to 2.2 GeV/nucleon depending on the element. During approximately 38 hours at float altitude, 100,000 events were recorded with Z or = 6 and incident energies approx. 1.5 GeV/nucleon. We present results from the ongoing data analysis associated with both the preflight Bevalac calibration and the flight data

Examination of offsite radiological emergency protective measures for nuclear reactor accidents involving core melt

"Date published: June 1978. --Reissued: October 1979."MITNE series handwritten on title-page"SAND78-0454."Originally issued as a Ph. D. thesis by the first author and supervised by the second and third author, MIT, Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1978Originally issued as anIncludes bibliographical referencesEvacuation, sheltering followed by population relocation, and iodine prophylaxis are evaluated as offsite public protective measures in response to nuclear reactor accidents involving core-melt. Evaluations were conducted using a modified version of the Reactor Safety Study consequence model. Models representing each measure were developed and are discussed. Potential PWR core-melt radioactive material releases are separated into two categories, "Melt-through" and "Atmospheric," based upon the mode of containment failure. Protective measures are examined and compared for each category in terms of projected doses to the whole body and thyroid. Measures for "Atmospheric" accidents are also examined in terms of their influence on the occurrence of public health effects. For "Melt-through" accidents, few, if any, early public health effects are likely, and doses in excess of Protective Action Guides (PAGs) are "confined" to areas within 10 miles of the reactor.Evacuation appears to provide the largest reduction in whole body dose for this category. However, sheltering, particularly when basements are readily available, may be an acceptable alternative. Both evacuation and iodine prophylaxis can substantially reduce the dose to the thyroid. For "Atmospheric" accidents, PAGs are likely to be exceeded at very large distances, and significant numbers of early public health effects are possible. However, most early fatalities occur within 10 miles of the reactor. Within 5 miles, evacuation appears to be more effective than sheltering in reducing the number of early health effects. Beyond 5 miles, this distinction is less, or not, apparent. Within 10 miles, early health effects are strongly influenced by the speed and efficiency with which protective measures are implemented. Outside of 10 miles, they are not.The projected total number of thyroid nodules is not substantially reduced unless iodine prophylaxis is administered over very large areas (distances). The qualitative effects of weather conditions on the above conclusions are also briefly discussed.Prepared for Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, Probabilistic Staff, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, under Interagency Agreement DOE-40-550-75 NRC FIN no. A103

Efficient Bayesian hierarchical functional data analysis with basis function approximations using Gaussian-Wishart processes

Functional data are defined as realizations of random functions (mostly smooth functions) varying over a continuum, which are usually collected with measurement errors on discretized grids. In order to accurately smooth noisy functional observations and deal with the issue of high-dimensional observation grids, we propose a novel Bayesian method based on the Bayesian hierarchical model with a Gaussian-Wishart process prior and basis function representations. We first derive an induced model for the basis-function coefficients of the functional data, and then use this model to conduct posterior inference through Markov chain Monte Carlo. Compared to the standard Bayesian inference that suffers serious computational burden and unstableness for analyzing high-dimensional functional data, our method greatly improves the computational scalability and stability, while inheriting the advantage of simultaneously smoothing raw observations and estimating the mean-covariance functions in a nonparametric way. In addition, our method can naturally handle functional data observed on random or uncommon grids. Simulation and real studies demonstrate that our method produces similar results as the standard Bayesian inference with low-dimensional common grids, while efficiently smoothing and estimating functional data with random and high-dimensional observation grids where the standard Bayesian inference fails. In conclusion, our method can efficiently smooth and estimate high-dimensional functional data, providing one way to resolve the curse of dimensionality for Bayesian functional data analysis with Gaussian-Wishart processes.Comment: Under revie

A method for risk analysis of nuclear reactor accidents

Originally presented as the first author's thesis, (Ph. D.)--in the M.I.T. Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1976Includes bibliographical references (pages 207-208)Prepared for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research no. AT(49-24)-026

X-Ray Emission from the Warm Hot Intergalactic Medium

The number of detected baryons in the Universe at z<0.5 is much smaller than predicted by standard big bang nucleosynthesis and by the detailed observation of the Lyman alpha forest at red-shift z=2. Hydrodynamical simulations indicate that a large fraction of the baryons today is expected to be in a ``warm-hot'' (10^5-10^7K) filamentary gas, distributed in the intergalactic medium. This gas, if it exists, should be observable only in the soft X-ray and UV bands. Using the predictions of a particular hydrodynamic model, we simulated the expected X-ray flux as a function of energy in the 0.1-2 keV band due to the Warm-Hot Intergalactic Medium (WHIM), and compared it with the flux from local and high red-shift diffuse components. Our results show that as much as 20% of the total diffuse X-ray background (DXB) in the energy range 0.37-0.925keV could be due to X-ray flux from the WHIM, 70% of which comes from filaments at redshift z between 0.1 and 0.6. Simulations done using a FOV of 3', comparable with that of Suzaku and Constellation-X, show that in more than 20% of the observations we expect the WHIM flux to contribute to more than 20% of the DXB. These simulations also show that in about 10% of all the observations a single bright filament in the FOV accounts, alone, for more than 20% of the DXB flux. Red-shifted oxygen lines should be clearly visible in these observations.Comment: 19 pages, 6 figure

Time-varying Learning and Content Analytics via Sparse Factor Analysis

We propose SPARFA-Trace, a new machine learning-based framework for time-varying learning and content analytics for education applications. We develop a novel message passing-based, blind, approximate Kalman filter for sparse factor analysis (SPARFA), that jointly (i) traces learner concept knowledge over time, (ii) analyzes learner concept knowledge state transitions (induced by interacting with learning resources, such as textbook sections, lecture videos, etc, or the forgetting effect), and (iii) estimates the content organization and intrinsic difficulty of the assessment questions. These quantities are estimated solely from binary-valued (correct/incorrect) graded learner response data and a summary of the specific actions each learner performs (e.g., answering a question or studying a learning resource) at each time instance. Experimental results on two online course datasets demonstrate that SPARFA-Trace is capable of tracing each learner's concept knowledge evolution over time, as well as analyzing the quality and content organization of learning resources, the question-concept associations, and the question intrinsic difficulties. Moreover, we show that SPARFA-Trace achieves comparable or better performance in predicting unobserved learner responses than existing collaborative filtering and knowledge tracing approaches for personalized education

FRANTIC 5 (a version of FRANTIC II) : a computer code for evaluating system aging effect

"November 1986."Includes bibliographical referencesThe FRANTIC 5 code is a modification of the FRANTIC II code for time dependent unavailability analysis. FRANTIC 5 is specially adapted for modeling the aging effects on system and component performance. The FRANTIC 5 code uses the linear aging model, i.e., based on the assumption that component failure rates increase linearly in time. The constant failure rate and the aging acceleration rate for a component can be changed during the plant life, which allows the creation of different time scales for components as a function of the replacement or any significant maintenance or repair action on the component. FRANTIC 5 preserves most of the unique features of FRANTIC II, for example the modeling of periodic testing. The output from FRANTIC 5 consists of the system mean unavailabilities, tables of the system unavailabilities at designated time points and the system mean unavailabilities between consecutive tests. The code is applied for evaluation of aging effects of the Auxiliary Feedwater System of Arkansas Nuclear Unit 1. The usefulness of the method will depend upon the availability of the component aging data needed to develop the model parameters.Prepared for EG&G Idaho, Inc. special research subcontract no. C86-10094

Time dependent unavailability analysis to standby safety systems

"Prepared for Brookhaven National Laboratory."Includes bibliographical references (p. 280-284)Contract no. BNL-54668